Here is a map of the most at-risk housing in France

The Center for Studies and Expertise on Risk, Environment, Mobility and Development has prepared an inventory of buildings, houses and buildings exposed to beach retreat in 2028, 2050 and 2100. Several hundred thousand buildings will potentially be affected by 2100.

In France, some coastal areas will soon become uninhabitable In front of the progress of the oceans. France is particularly sensitive to the retreat of the coastline, the boundary between land and sea, which changes under the influence of natural phenomena (surge, wind), rising sea levels and human intervention.

And the Center for Studies and Expertise on Risk, Environment, Mobility and Planning identified in a study exactly where the risks are located. Thus, in 2028, 1,046 buildings have been identified as being exposed to beach retreat. The Côte d’Azur is particularly affected by this phenomenon. According to Saaremaa, one of the explanations is that the houses were built too close to the sea.

Over this time frame, Saaremaa identified buildings located in the immediate vicinity of the coastline and potentially exposed to “event-related shocks”: marked shaking during storms, landslides, etc. This is a possible scenario: although this does not mean that all buildings will go into the sea, these buildings are close to retreating or unstable areas.

By 2050, 5,208 homes, including approximately 2,000 second homes, will be at risk.

“It should be noted that prime housing occupied by their owner (1,246 housing units) represents only 24% of the housing units to be reached by the 2050 scenario,” the study said.

The most affected departments will be Corsica, Var, Vendée and Manche. The Ministry of Ecological Transition specifies, “This is a scenario integrating the continued trend of retreat of the coastline and based on the maintenance and upkeep of all coastal protection actions: it is an objective and probable scenario.”

few days back, BFM TV told to the story the hague The victim of this secondary house (channel), located about twenty meters from the beach below, is in danger of collapsing. land erosion, For ten years, the city’s mayor has noted the continued advance of the sea as well as soil erosion. The councilor further said on the microphone of BFMTV, “Rains, springs, drains have created mobility in the ground due to which sometimes parts of the coast bend.”

2100 scenario

With much larger areas in the 2100 scenario, the number of potentially affected households is logically higher at this time and will reach approximately 450,000.

“Over this time frame, SAREMA is based on a higher estimate from the IPCC and assumes a potential rise of 1 meter in sea and ocean levels. This phenomenon has continued to increase since the beginning of the 20th century and this phenomenon is expected to accelerate. Is”, states the Ministry of Ecological Transition.

Please note, the study specifies, “the 2100 scenario reflects the potential consequences of inaction in the face of climate change impacts” including “the complete disappearance of protective structures” and “all topographically low areas of the coastline “Progressive Flooding”. , Obviously, in the event of action by the government and mayors, the results may still change.

Sébastien Dupré, director of “Risk, Water, Sea” at Cerma, recalls: “There is no national solution that we can apply everywhere in the region because the coasts of the Camargue are low and sandy, while the coasts of Normandy have chalk cliffs. are high… and he added: “Not all dams are the answer.”

Symbolic case of “signal”

In February 2023, demolition of “Signal” began, This building in Soulac-sur-Mer (Gironde) has become a symbol of the decline of the beaches on the Atlantic coast. This four-storey bar, built in 1967 200 meters from the sea, now sits just twenty metres, on the edge of a dune eaten away by the waves.

Nicolas Bernon, coastal risk engineer at the New Aquitaine Coastal Observatory, explains that a natural phenomenon that has been operating on the Atlantic coast for 18,000 years, beach retreat is characterized by the large-scale movement of sediment under the influence of waves, winds and tides. According to scientists at the observatory, by 2050 the sandy coastline of the Bay of Biscay could retreat by 50 meters and the rocky coast of the Basque Country by 27 meters.

Climate change, which is expected to cause water levels to rise over the next 30 years by the same amount as those measured in the last century, also threatens to increase falls by an additional 20 meters in places, says Nicolas Bernon.

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